Defense Scenarios and Military Strategies

[rms12]

Thread to list interesting defense scenarios, defense research papers, and military strategies.

How the United States Lost the Naval War of 2015
(by James Kraska - a guest investigator at the Marine Policy Center, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution and the former Oceans Policy Adviser for the Director of Strategic Plans & Policy, Joint Chiefs of Staff)

Abstract: Years of strategic missteps in oceans policy, naval strategy and a force structure in decline set the stage for U.S. defeat at sea in 2015. After decades of double-digit budget increases, the People’s Liberation Army (Navy) was operating some of the most impressive systems in the world, including a medium-range ballistic missile that could hit a moving aircraft carrier and a super-quiet diesel electric submarine that was stealthier than U.S. nuclear submarines. Coupling this new asymmetric naval force to visionary maritime strategy and oceans policy, China ensured that all elements of national power
promoted its goal of dominating the East China Sea. The United States, in contrast, had a declining naval force structured around 10 aircraft carriers spread thinly throughout the globe. With a maritime strategy focused on lower order partnerships,and anational oceans policy thatdevaluedstrategic interests in freedom of navigation, the stage was set for defeat at sea. This article recounts howChina destroyed the USS George Washington in the East China Sea in 2015. The political fallout from the disaster ended 75 years of U.S. dominance in the Pacific Ocean and cemented China’s position as the Asian hegemon.

[rms12]

Gabriel B. Collins and William S.Murray write this paper (attached) to lay out a scenario of a naval conflict between USA and China over Oil, in the Gulf of Malacca. The authors argue that "The United States, India, and Japan are all seen as potential blockaders, but Chinese observers appear to believe that only the United States has both the capability and the will to blockade oil shipments to China."

This article examines potential Chinese responses to possible forms of energy blockade. The first two sections discuss how a distant blockade might be conducted and surveys possible Chinese responses to such an action. The third section hypothesizes a close blockade and then analyzes potential courses of action in response. The fourth section examines the possibility of a “blockade by convoy,” while the final section considers an energy-denial strategy that would target China’s ability to transport and process crude oil.

The authors conclude that an energy blockade of China would not only fail to achieve its objective but also send destructive shock waves through the global economic and political landscape. Frankly discussing energy sea-lane security will, ideally, promote trust and lay a foundation for deeper energy security cooperation between China and other major oil consumers.

[yogi]

This is an old assessment (2006) of Chinese Internal views on relationship with India, by D. S. Rajan

Internal Chinese views on India are different from what they say to international media. There appears to be two views one for internal consumption and another benign one for external consumption. We should not come to the conclusion that there are differences internally between strategic analysts and the policy makers in China. It is deliberately done to 'unsettle' Indian positions on China.

[sunitha]

Here is an historical artifact.

The Indian Communist Party and the Sino-Soviet Dispute (A declassified CIA espionage paper)

This paper clearly shows the nexus between various factions of the Indian Communists Parties with Soviet and Chinese Communists, and the extent to which they would go in pushing their agenda over Prime Minister Nehru.